Introduction
(Water, Climate, Settlement Patterns, and Agricultural Situation)
In Jordan,
climate change has been an increasingly popular topic, not only within the
non-governmental and, mostly western, donor countries' agencies in Amman, but a
not so unusual tea-table talk among the public. A series of public-opinion and livelihood-altering
events Jordanians have lived and have been living through the recent years have
been drawing the public's attention to climate change. From flash floods in the
major cities, and hiking canyons, such events had a hefty death toll and material
losses (the latter debated among the public whether it was merely an administrative
negligence, unusual flash flood or a mix of both), to volatile annual
rainfall, and frequent droughts in a country heavily depending on upstream
nations for water sources (Rajsekhar et al., 2017). All that is aggravating the
water stress, affecting day-to-day chores of inhabitants, shrinking
agricultural employment, potentially triggering rural to urban migration
Jordan is an
upper-middle-income country (World Bank, 2021), at the crossroads between Asia,
Africa, and Europe, lies in the Levant region. Jordan is a net food-importing
developing country (WTO, 2020) and almost landlocked, with a limited coastline in
the Gulf of Aqaba. The economy of Jordan depends on trade, international
donations and loans, and foreign remittances. The latter accounts for approximately
20% of the GDP (Government of the Netherlands,2019) (USAID 2017).
Jordan has
three distinct climate regions (JO TNC, 2014) (USAID 2017):
· Jordan valley, a section of the great rift valley,
with an elevation below sea level. It experiences warm winters and hot
summers, and an average annual rainfall of 102-300 mm.
· The Badia (Arabic for desert)
covers 85% of the country with an arid and semi-arid climate, with an average
annual rainfall below 200 mm, which renders it an inhospitable habitat for
humans.
· The Highlands, which span
north to south of Jordan to the east of the Jordan valley. It experiences the
highest average annual rainfall of 350-500 mm and hosts the vast majority of
Jordan's rural and urban settlements.
Because of the biophysical nature of Jordan, 90% of the population is in the northwest of the country, where the climate is temperate, and water is relatively abundant which makes the population density of that part one of the highest in the world. Population growth is rapid in Jordan attributed to enormous waves of refugees mainly from Palestinian territories, Iraq, and Syria following political and societal upheavals in the region. Making Jordan one of the highest refugee host countries in the world (on a per capita basis) (UNHCR, 2017) (Government of the Netherlands,2019).
Conflict-induced population growth, besides considerable rural-to-urban migration induced by systematic livelihood challenges is at least partly stemming from water-energy scarcities and their implications on agricultural profitability\feasibility. Rapid population growth further strains the already contested resources, infrastructure, and social services. As one of the worlds' most water-stressed countries (UNICEF, 2021), water scarcity affects every aspect of the people of Jordan's lives and impedes economic growth and development (USAID, 2017). Jordan is the second most water-stressed country in the world. Jordan's annual renewable water resources at(100m3/person) are well below the threshold of (500m3/person) defining severe water scarcity. In urban areas, water is usually available once a week, and less than once in two weeks in rural areas (UNICEF, 2021). In summer, the weekly frequency is lower, as well as the pumping pressure in pipelines is severed which makes it hard to reach top stories in residential buildings, especially in the urban setting, where inhabitants rely on water tanks installed on the roof of each building to cover the needs for the upcoming week/s.The
agricultural sector in Jordan depletes nearly half of the country's water
supply consumption and only contributes four percent to the gross domestic
product (GDP) of the once agricultural country
Jordan
Emission Profile
The energy
sector in Jordan at a staggering 72.9% of the total GHG emission of the country
for the year 2006, the vast majority of which (99.8%) is carbon dioxide (JO
TNC, 2014), shows that the country has a higher energy intensity of GDP than
most countries of the MENA region. Still, Jordan only contributes (0.06%-0.07%)
Future Climate Projections, vulnerabilities and risk profile
Jordan’s projections (JO
TNC, 2014) of two IPCC’s Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)namely RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5, on the 1980-2100 period, show that by
2085 Mean temperature is “extremely likely”
to have a homogenous increase of temperature all over different geographical
regions of the country. ranging +3.1C° and +5.1C° for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
respectively. Also, by 2085, the
minimum temperature is “extremely likely” to have an increase ranging between
+1.7C° and +5.3C° for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The maximum temperature is “extremely likely” to
have an increase ranging between +1.7C° and +5.5C° by 2085 for RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 respectively.
Forecasted precipitation
using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 shows that it is "likely" to have a trend of
significant decreased in precipitation. Yet, soaked years may still be
"likely possible" by the end of the century.
The Potential
Evapotranspiration (PET) will likely increase
to 250 millimeters by the end of the 21st century. PET will increase
in the country overall but with varying intensities, but the highest increment
will be in the following regions: most intense in the country's eastern desert,
followed by the coastal city of Aqaba and southern regions.
Under the same study (JO
TNC, 2014) for the same scenarios on the 1980-2100 period calculations of the Standardized Precipitation indexes (SPI), which is a drought index
sensitive to global warming (Vicente-Serrano, 2010), have shown that it
"extremely likely" for Jordan to witness more droughts. Contrarily,
it is also "likely" to above-average wet years to occur that may
generate floods.
Four Climate Hazards
The projected changes in Jordan's climate
variables (minimum, maximum, and median temperature, precipitation, PET,
and SPI) exacerbate the following climate hazards: decreased precipitation,
increased temperature, evaporation, and ultimately, drought.
It's worth mentioning the repercussions of the hazards remain serious for both
the median and the worst-case pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.
Vulnerabilities per Sector
The previously discussed forecasted climate variables and the resulting climate hazards will directly amplify and generate risks in the vital sectors, as follows according to a 2017 USAID risk profiling of Jordan. The Agricultural sector
is already operating in a vulnerable state, as mentioned in the
introduction stricken by water scarcity, high water usage. Adding to that the
nature of the urban sprawl on the expense on Jordan’s most fertile lands and
temperate climate regions since the establishment of Transjordan
- Crop loss and failures due to volatile and diminished
rainfall.
- Increased demand for irrigation water due to higher
evaporation and evapotranspiration, with decreased ability to meet such demand.
- Shortened and altered growing seasons.
- Desertification of already scarce arable land.
- Income loss, and inability to grow water-intensive
export crops.
- Increased food imports.
The Livestock sector is already dwindling
due to the decline in pastures, and failures in fodder crops such as barley.
The sectors' main
stressors, as in agriculture, remain the rising temperature, decreased
rainfall, and drought augmenting the following risks:
- Higher livestock morbidity, and mortality.
- Scarcity of livestock drinking water and pasturelands.
- Eventually, loss of income and trade deficit.
Human Health
Increased reliance on
treated water carries the risks of crop contamination, waterborne pathogens and
ultimately jeopardizing food security in a country that imports 80% of domestic
food demands.
Water Availability
The water supply
crisis in Jordan is worsened by two fundamental factors: (i) The country is a
downstream country and depends on upstream nations Syria and Israel for its
surface water supply where the headwaters for the transboundary Yarmouk and
Jordan rivers are located. (ii) groundwater pumping intensification at
approximately 200% of the sustainable capacity. Even the newly developed “Disi”
aquifer, on which Amman partly relies, is a transboundary aquifer with Saudi
Arabia (Rajsekhar et al., 2017).
Water sector risks,
caused by rising temperatures and reduced rainfall, including but not limited
to constrained economic growth; reduced recharge rate, groundwater, and surface
water; reduced water quality, and regional geopolitical tension over water
(USAID, 2017).
Tipping
Point
Jordan’s resources
issue, or food-water-energy trilemma, is multi-faceted in nature, spanning
domestic scarcities, land-use changes in neighboring upstream nations, massive
refugee influx, and climate change as a threat multiplier
References
Britannica. (2021, 08 20). Settlement patterns.
Retrieved from Britannica:
https://www.britannica.com/place/Jordan/Settlement-patterns
D Rajsekhar, S. G. (2017). Increasing drought in Jordan:
Climate change and cascading Syrian land-use impacts on reducing. SCIENCE
ADVANCES.
UNDP. (2021, 06 17). World Day to Combat Desertification
and Drought. Retrieved from www.jo.undp.org:
https://www.jo.undp.org/content/jordan/en/home/presscenter/articles/2021/world-day-to-combat-desertification-and-drought.html
The World Bank. (2021, 08 20). World Bank Country and Lending
GroupsRetrieved from datahelpdesk.worldbank.org: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
WTO Committee on Agriculture (2017). WTO LIST OF NET
FOOD-IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE MARRAKESH
MINISTERIAL DECISION ON MEASURES CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF
THE REFORM PROGRAMME ON LEAST-DEVELOPED AND NET FOOD-IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
("THE DECISION"). G/AG/5/Rev.11.
Government of the Netherlands (2019). Climate Change Profile.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
USAID (2017). CLIMATE CHANGE RISK PROFILE JORDAN.
The Hashemite Kingdom of
Jordan Third National
Communication on Climate Change (TNC) to the UNFCCC (2014).
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?rec=j&priref=7772#beg
UNHCR (June 2017) Jordan Factsheet: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Jordan%20Fact%20Sheet%20June%202017-%20FINAL.pdf
UNICEF. (2021, 18 08). Jordan; Water, sanitation and
hygiene Access to safe water and sanitation for every child. Retrieved from
https://www.unicef.org/:
https://www.unicef.org/jordan/water-sanitation-and-hygiene
Olivier, J. G. J., et al. "Emission
database for global atmospheric research (EDGAR)." Environmental Monitoring
and
Assessment 31.1 (1994): 93-106.
USAID (2016). Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Jordan.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J.
I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.
USAID. (2021, August 30). WATER RESOURCES &
ENVIRONMENT. Retrieved from https://www.usaid.gov/:
https://www.usaid.gov/jordan/water-and-wastewater-infrastructure
worldometers. (2021, 08 09). Jordan CO2 Emissions.
Retrieved from worldometers:
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/jordan-co2-emissions/
Ababsa, M. (Ed.) p. 257-267.
(2013). Atlas of Jordan: history, territories and society (Vol. 32). Presses de
l’Ifpo.
al-Asad, M. (2004, April 29). Urban Sprawl Urban
Crossroads#3. Retrieved from CSBE: https://www.csbe.org/urban-sprawl
Ministry of Water and Irrigation (2016) Climate Change Policy
for a Resilient Water Sector available at https://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/national-documents/jordan-climate-change-policy-resilient-water-sector
